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Old 08-25-2016, 12:48 PM   #41
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The models for 99 seem to be spreading out more rather than tightening. The computer models range from one with a sharp westward turn across Cuba and two with paths that take it west to the gulf so it never hits Florida to one that has it hit the Florida east coast up about Melbourne, on both sides of but none hitting South Florida. Then the ensemble models have a mid path that comes up the west coast of FL but have various models ranging from Cuba to missing everything until Louisiana to staying off the east coast and never hitting the US. The wind speed has dropped from 45 mph to 40 mph as it's north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. It turned west overnight.

An interesting piece of trivia. Florida has been almost 11 years since a hurricane made landfall in the state. (Wilma 10/25/05). Louisiana and NC have each had 4 since then.
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Old 08-25-2016, 01:49 PM   #42
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Watch out for some of those pilings. That picture was taken during a very low tide normally the worm eaten part is not visible.
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Old 08-25-2016, 02:19 PM   #43
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Having just completed a bottom paint job, I was on the hard a few years ago when the yard started it contract haul out prior to a Cat I storm. Numerous boats were lining up for haul out. They asked what I wanted to do splash or stay on the hard. I looked around at the scrap yard next door with tin and sheet metal stacked 30' high, the lumber yard a block away and the metal building scattered around the area. It was not a hard decision to take to the water. While an insurance company may prefer a haul out it is entirely a situational decision. Some places just are not safe in or out of the water in a storm.
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Old 08-25-2016, 03:24 PM   #44
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McGillicuddy - Yeah, the Industrial Canal sits entirely behind the "Great Wall" - should be the best hole on the Southshore - probably between the Gulf between Mexico and Pensacola. BUT, because entitled knucklheads "think" it was the barge that caused the 9th Ward Katrina flooding (surely not poorly designed USACE levees or the MRGO), USACE and the Coasties are beholden to hazard vessels and people in the event of a storm.

I fuel at Seabrook - they told me that the Coasties had advised them that they had demo teams, a plan, and authorization to sink ANY craft (commercial or rec) in the Industrial Canal after the storm criteria had been met.

I don't know if that posh 300 footer at old Trinity is capable of getting underway yet. Might be interesting.
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Old 08-25-2016, 04:57 PM   #45
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SBU22, I know the costal area in Mississippi pretty well. Spent two years in Point Cadet and Biloxi small craft harbor. We left there back in April of this year. Actually kicked out because our lease was up. We had a month or two that they allowed us to do month to month. However as soon as they had a full time applicant they told us we had to leave. Most all of the marinas along the stretch between Biloxi and Pensacola are pretty much full to boats our size. Gulfport harbor, Bay Saint Louis harbor and Barbers in Josephine, Al are the exception. Every marina along the northern coast will force you out for any named storm.

Band B, I understand what you are saying about building marines to withstand storms. However you don't see many floating docks over our way. There are a few but they are few and far between. Reason being it's tough to build high enough for storm surge. Katrina along the western Mississippi Gulf Coast had a storm surge as high a 33' asl. Our home in Mississippi at the time was on the water inland several miles and over 35 miles from the eye of Katrina. At that location we still had 16' asl storm surge.

You can build for the wind but building against the water is almost impossible.
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Old 08-25-2016, 10:16 PM   #46
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Cap't Jon - I stand corrected on the eastern reach. Maybe slip size plays in, as well.
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Old 08-25-2016, 11:29 PM   #47
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Looks like 99 is not a big deal... I hope

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Old 08-26-2016, 12:40 AM   #48
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Now all of the computer models have 99 proceeding on a more western path into the Gulf of Mexico and first making landfall between Pensacola and Mexico. The ensemble models have it proceeding westerly. However, a couple have it skirting SW Florida and then even after making landfall in the Panhandle crossing land back to the Atlantic. We're still several days from it making landfall in the US. However, looks like it may hit Cuba by tomorrow night or early Saturday, or it may just skirt Cuba.
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Old 08-26-2016, 05:17 AM   #49
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Now all of the computer models have 99 proceeding on a more western path into the Gulf of Mexico and first making landfall between Pensacola and Mexico. The ensemble models have it proceeding westerly. However, a couple have it skirting SW Florida and then even after making landfall in the Panhandle crossing land back to the Atlantic. We're still several days from it making landfall in the US. However, looks like it may hit Cuba by tomorrow night or early Saturday, or it may just skirt Cuba.
Definitely an interesting storm to watch...noticed the shift in models this morning, all have move further west from yesterday. Still not a good sign for northern Gulf Coast, and actually not sure anyone's out of the woods yet.

Will be interesting to see what Bastardi at Weatherbell says on his morning update.
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Old 08-26-2016, 07:53 AM   #50
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Not looking like it's going to develop much at all anymore is it?

Our boat is in a pretty protected marina where people come to ride out hurricane season because of it.
So even if a big storm were to come, we wouldn't move the boat.

I'm not at all worried about this little storm except for the potential of rain it could bring to our already completely devastated area.
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Old 08-26-2016, 07:59 AM   #51
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I am at a floating dock on the Industrial canal in New Orleans. The USCG in their wisdom has a hurricane plan for the entire area that does not allow any boats to be afloat in the canal and have to move out prior to any named storm heading our way. My plan is to head across Lake Pontchartrain to the Tchefuncta River and anchor behind Brady Island while tied up to the shore.
The USCG plan to close the industrial canal is a result of barges that got loose on the canal during Katrina and topped over a levy and in to a subdivision. There was a claim(not proven in the end) that the errant barge had busted through the sea wall and caused the flooding.

It is frustrating because the USCofE has built huge walls and gate structures and can close off all entrances to the area essentially making the area a non tidal lake and therefore a prime hurricane hole. I would rather stay at my (floating) dock on the canal.


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Old 08-26-2016, 08:29 AM   #52
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Awoke to a report of only 20 percent development before landfall, if at all. We're relieved. The predicted likely track of the storm for the last couple of days put Sarasota barely on the NE side of the center.....not a good place to be for surge. Still, the water is so hot around here, the whole Gulf just seems like a dangerous place to live till it cools off. Ever get that feeling that the gun is cocked and pointed at you?
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Old 08-26-2016, 08:36 AM   #53
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Anyone thinking of hauling out would do good to walk or drive the marina area.

Most towns have signs near the water with flooding heights., for different CAT of storms.

Look at the likely flood height . look at where you are hauling.

Makes interesting contemplating.
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Old 08-26-2016, 08:36 AM   #54
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Well...I was liking yesterday's 2pm model runs much better than this mornings.
Guess I'll have to start paying closer attention.
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Old 08-26-2016, 09:04 AM   #55
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I'm not at all worried about this little storm except for the potential of rain it could bring to our already completely devastated area.
Tempting fate are we?

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Old 08-26-2016, 10:12 AM   #56
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Awoke to a report of only 20 percent development before landfall, if at all. We're relieved. The predicted likely track of the storm for the last couple of days put Sarasota barely on the NE side of the center.....not a good place to be for surge. Still, the water is so hot around here, the whole Gulf just seems like a dangerous place to live till it cools off. Ever get that feeling that the gun is cocked and pointed at you?
Was just reading a couple of days ago how many decades since Sarasota was hit by a hurricane. Daytona Beach is in the same situation. Brunswick GA is something like 75 years.
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Old 08-26-2016, 11:51 AM   #57
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Brunswick, Ga.'s protection from Hurricane hits is likely due to the distance from the Gulf Stream, sixty some odd miles if I am not mistaken.
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Old 08-26-2016, 12:09 PM   #58
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Here is a chronological list of all hurricanes to make US landfall.

TCFAQ E23) What is the complete list of continental U.S. landfalling
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Old 08-26-2016, 04:27 PM   #59
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It ain't over til it's over. And, down here on the third coast, that's about Halloween. Injection temperature currently around 85 F. Lots of potential energy.
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Old 08-26-2016, 04:58 PM   #60
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It ain't over til it's over. And, down here on the third coast, that's about Halloween. Injection temperature currently around 85 F. Lots of potential energy.
It's amazing to look back to the year 2005 to present. In 2005, Louisiana had 3 hurricanes to make landfall and Florida (including west and east coasts) had 4. However, since 2005, Florida has not had a hurricane to make landfall and Louisiana has had 4.

Since 1851, 65% of the hurricanes to make landfall have been in August and September and 19% in October so your Halloween comment certainly makes sense. 6% in June, 9% in July and just under 2% in November. Yes it totals 101% due to rounding.
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