Dorian aims for East Coast of Florida

[High Wire]

It’s a weak one but will do some damage.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_grap...ind+png/114855_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

[Group9]

Ought to get pretty sporty in parts of the Bahamas.

 

[cardude01]

My boat is in the Abacos-- Black Sound on GTC. ?*

Trying to decide if it can ride out winds from 40-70mph in the slip. It's tied off with 6 lines and I can possibly get a local to add 4 more. Jib is off. No canvass up but I kind of worry about my big solar panels and the storm surge raising me up too much.

The hurricane plan is to run it across the sound to the yard to haul it out and strap it down. Trying to decide.

 

[O C Diver]

My boat is in the Abacos-- Black Sound on GTC. ��*

Trying to decide if it can ride out winds from 40-70mph in the slip. It's tied off with 6 lines and I can possibly get a local to add 4 more. Jib is off. No canvass up but I kind of worry about my big solar panels and the storm surge raising me up too much.

The hurricane plan is to run it across the sound to the yard to haul it out and strap it down. Trying to decide.

If your going to haulout, better get on the list now. In situations like this, the haulout list goes from empty to "sorry we're full" in a matter of hours.

Ted

 

[PJHoffnet]

Best place to grab an end of day update - IMHO.
Still tons of uncertainty. Lots of dry air, land (Hispaniola and PR) in the way and then hopefully sheer north of there. I'm hoping for a strong tropical depression/weak TS following the Gulf Stream up the east coast of FL. My pool can use some water, even though it will be a bummer to wash out the Labor Day weekend.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[OldDan1943]

Guess I should start doubling up my lines about Thursday.
Right now, the center of the storm will be north of lake.

 

[cardude01]

If your going to haulout, better get on the list now. In situations like this, the haulout list goes from empty to "sorry we're full" in a matter of hours.

Ted

The local who owns the slip just decided that same thing. He’s taking it to get hauled now.

 

[menzies]

It's going to get more than a bit Gray!

 

[cardude01]

I see Dorian is forecast to possibly be a Cat 3 now? Sure hope it turns north a bit so the Abacos don’t take a direct hit. I’m hauled out now and strapped down, but I’m not sure that matters much for a Cat 3?

Menzies, what’s your hurricane plan?

 

[diver dave]

The good news is that airfare to FL is super cheap right now. I just got a $53 one way NS ticket to ORL from WNY. This is to deal with hurricane prep on the NE FL coast.
I also have some work to do for the power company down there, but after this w/e, that may change considerably.

 

[menzies]

Sonas is already on the hard over at Lambs for bottom paint.

This happened once before when it was on the hill and a storm was coming through. They offered to keep her there, but I had them launch it so I could bring it into our lagoon.

We will see what tomorrow brings. So far no word from the yard on hauling other boats. If the work I wanted done is not yet completed then I will just leave her there.

From the 2:00pm update it looks like it is slowing (from a 8pm Sat landfall to an 8am Monday landfall) and heading for the Melbourne/Titusville area.

 

[High Wire]

Wow! That forecast got ugly fast.

 

[Gulf Comanche]

Good luck to all. This one looks like Andrew that crossed FL and jumped into the GOM and wrecked Baton Rouge.

 

[Seevee]

Buckle down for sure. Forecast to be 100kts just south of Daytona Beach Mon morning. While this it FAR from causing the destruction that Panama City got, it will certainly have an impact. Anything loose will fly....

The biggest risk of a hurricane is flooding, but when the winds get up over 100 kts, that causes a LOT of damage, too.


However, still hard to predict 5 days out. A lot can change and hope for the better.

 

[Marlinmike]

Good luck to everyone in the path, stay safe!

 

[OldDan1943]

The center of the cone is still north of the Lake O so I should have little or no problems.
I will still move the boat away from the wall, double the lines and prepare to take in the water hoses. Depending upon the growing conditions, I may take the RIB off the davits, move under the bow (I am bow in), pull the drain plug and fill it about 1/2 with seawater and put the plug back in.

When Irma hit, my starboard side was to the weather, yes I was in the water and onboard. Due to old fill cap o'rings, I did get water in my starboard fuel tank. It showed up in my Racor. Naturally, I drained the Racor on-line. After a couple of days, I changed the cartridge.
When I went to the yard for bottom work, we had them raise the bow for overnight.... no further indication of water. I did shock the tank with 'something' designed to reabsorb water and a biocide at first sign of water in the Racor. Yea, I forgot the name.

Let's hope for a early Thanksgiving. aka end of hurricane season. SMILE

 

[rgano]

Do not be fooled by the NOAA forecasted strength. We here in PC watched Micheal go from "hey, it's just a cat 1" to cat 4 overnight and then actually hitting us at cat 5. Dorian may not be done strengthening. Surge/flooding literally killed Mexico Beach just a few miles east while wind ripped us a new one here in our bayou. That storm striking 20 miles farther west would have flooded my home to the eaves. As it was I lost a boat shed and a few shingles on the house and trees crushing out back porch and punching holes in the roof of the carport area - house itself livable. Almost a year and repairs are still incomplete. But boat is back in shape and running well.

 

[BandB]

Dorian is no longer weak. 24 hours ago, forecast to be CAT 1. 12 hours ago was CAT 2. Now forecast to be CAT 3.

Landfall was everywhere from Mid Florida to south of FL to SC to not at all. Now, it's focused on the East Coast of FL, then crossing, then the gulf coast of FL. Landfall is now shown from Miami to Jacksonville. Most have it in the Palm Bay area but ECMWF now has landfall between Boynton and West Palm.

This is part of the pattern of warmer conditions energizing hurricanes gaining strength and of forecasts for the last three to four years initially forecasting weaker hurricanes than they became.

This hurricane quickly has gone from "no worry" to "oh s..." and from no evacuations to some expectation of evacuations prior to the weekend, just don't know where yet.

 

[caltexflanc]

Just remember the margin of error on predicted center-of-cone track has been 200 miles in recent years.

 

[BandB]

Just remember the margin of error on predicted center-of-cone track has been 200 miles in recent years.

It's like predicting a sports event. The predictions become 100% accurate only after the game is over.

The margin of error does reduce the closer the time gets on hurricanes but right now we're still 4 to 5 days from landfall.

 

[OldDan1943]

It's like predicting a sports event. The predictions become 100% accurate only after the game is over.

The margin of error does reduce the closer the time gets on hurricanes but right now we're still 4 to 5 days from landfall.

In horse racing, it aint over until any and all protests are resolved

 

[RT Firefly]

 

[BandB]

Well, we're not going anywhere but still a lot of issues to deal with. Employees plus four 20-24 year old members of our extended family in SC right now and driving back home on Friday.

 

[cardude01]

I’m about to throw myself a pity party. I can’t believe the first time I make the (stupid) decision to leave the boat in the Bahamas during hurricane season I’m gonna get hit. I swear. I feel like a hurricane magnet.

(Pity party over)

 

[caltexflanc]

It's like predicting a sports event. The predictions become 100% accurate only after the game is over.

The margin of error does reduce the closer the time gets on hurricanes but right now we're still 4 to 5 days from landfall.

But by that time there is nothing you can do about it other than leave town, if possible.

 

[caltexflanc]

In horse racing, it aint over until any and all protests are resolved

Depends on if you are a bettor or an owner.

 

[lipets]

I'm in Daytona, 2 year old state of Art concrete docks, everyone is staying put.


THere is 95' there just added more fenders


Many are starting to add lines


But the forecast models width is over 300 miles wide, no one knows yet.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. c. Save the "pity party" for after the fact. Might turn into a "whoopee party". We're potentially in the path, as well. Can't run so double and triple the lines and cash in some Karma points.It ain't over until...well, you know the rest.

 

[cardude01]

Greetings,
Mr. c. Save the "pity party" for after the fact. Might turn into a "whoopee party". We're potentially in the path, as well. Can't run so double and triple the lines and cash in some Karma points.It ain't over until...well, you know the rest.

Very true! Thanks.

I’m probably just bummed because I can’t get there to do anything, but that may be a good thing actually.

 

[Donna]

I prepared the best I could. Southerly has weathered hurricanes before. I reviewed my insurance policy and am confident she is in a safe harbor. Not much else anyone can do but wait. ?*